Current Predictions at Golden Gate Bridge, 0.8 mile east of

Starting on 2025-11-06 PST

Current forecasts are generated by NOAA. These do not include effects of rainfall. Following heavy rains, you may expect stronger ebbs and delayed and reduced floods, particularly where the data provided are for greater depths.

• Currents from NOAA
• Sunrise/set by SunriseSunset.io

FXUS66 KMTR 061919
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1119 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

 -Light rain showers linger over the North Bay and San Mateo 
  Peninsula Coast today and Friday.

 -Tidally influenced coastal flooding and hazardous beach
  conditions continue through the early Weekend. 

 -Pleasant weather this weekend will yield to unsettled weather
  pattern next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

Mixed bag across the forecast area this morning, either sunshine
or clouds/patchy fog. Quite the change from yesterday morning
where it was wet and windy. Much less wind this morning, and while
there are bucket tips over the last hour or two - thinking those 
are condensation tips and not precip as satellite shows clear
skies in some areas. Bay Area radars are pretty quiet and not 
showing any showers at the moment like earlier this morning. This
is also supported by Bodega Bay and Cazadero profilers showing no
precip. Lastly, AQPI radar in Santa Rosa is also quiet. Will need
a quick update to remove showers this morning up north. That 
being said, still thinking some showers will return tonight and 
will leave those in the forecast.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 226 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 
(Today and tonight)

Compared to yesterday, conditions are much more tranquil as our 
potent upper system continues to move into the northern High 
Plains. However, westerly moist flow within the 700-500mb layer 
along with modest 925-850mb warm air advection will at a minimum 
re-inforce cloud cover, particularly for the Bay Area and points 
northward. Low level ascent is most prominent across the North Bay
and as a result, I've opted to make some slight alterations to 
increase the areal coverage of 20-40% PoPs and latest radar 
imagery supports this. The thick low/mid level clouds may hinder 
widespread dense fog development here, and I've opted for 
"patchy" fog wording here. Farther south, low level flow is a 
little more southerly which may not encourage as much ascent and 
this minimizes the chance for rain showers and low clouds (except 
along the immediate coast). With the relatively clearer conditions
in tandem with recent rainfall, the potential for a greater 
coverage of radiation fog, some dense, will reside across the 
South Bay and parts of the Central Coast. We'll monitor trends for
any potential dense fog products. 

With the zonal flow aloft, it's unlikely that our next front will
make much southward progress during the day today. Persistent 
westerly warm/moist flow in tandem with orographic ascent ahead of
this feature will continue to support the development of rain 
showers across the North Bay. Rain amounts are anticipated to 
average around 0.10", mainly across the northern Sonoma Coastal 
Ranges. While meaningful PoPs are advertised as far south as Santa
Rosa, the probability of exceeding 0.10" here is around 5%.

Later this evening and tonight, a mid-level jet max characterized
by 100 knot flow will swing through central Oregon. As surface 
cyclogenesis ensues, this should help drag the aforementioned 
frontal boundary southward. Eventually, this feature will undergo 
frontolysis as the parent surface low lifts eastward. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 226 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025 
(Friday through Wednesday)

Before our next front completely loses steam, it still appears 
that it'll interact with a moist airmass and kick off some showers
across the North Bay through pre-dawn hours on Friday. Measurable
rainfall does seem plausible even south of the Golden Gate. PoPs 
range from near 70% along the Sonoma/Mendocino County line to 15% 
just south of Half Moon Bay Friday morning. Some of the newer NBM
probabilities do suggest that low PoPs may be needed as far south
as the Santa Cruz mountains, but for now, confidence isn't high 
that sufficient ascent will reside that far south. Trends in short
term NWP will be monitored. Rain amounts still appear relatively 
lighter compared to the last day or so with values largely under 
1/4 of an inch. 

Little to no potential for rain is forecast for the entire area 
starting Friday afternoon and into the weekend. Ridging is 
anticipated to build in across the eastern Pacific which turns our
mid/upper level flow more northwest and northerly. Offshore flow 
at least within the 500-925mb layer should at scour out low level 
moisture. This will translate to warmer and more pleasant 
conditions outdoors with highs ranging between the mid 60s to mid
80s. If headed to the beach, beware that long period westerly 
swell will increase the risk for rip currents and sneaker waves. 
We've highlighted this threat with a Beach Hazard Statement. For 
more details, see the "beaches" section of the AFD.

Model guidance seems to be coming into slightly better agreement 
with a fair to foul weather transition next week. About 1/4 of GFS
and ECMWF ensemble members advertise that the H5 ridge will start
to breakdown and troughing will return to the west coast by 
Monday evening, with a majority of the multi-model ensemble 
advertising that this will not occur until about 24-48 hours 
later. For now, will ride with the blend for PoPs in the extended.
These spatial discrepancies equate to a broad-brush and low 
confidence rain forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Initial 
glances at some AR tools would point to more beneficial rainfall, 
but as we venture closer, we'll refine timing, rain amounts, and 
impacts. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

Overcast conditions continue in the North Bay and at HAF while other 
sites are clearing. Expect cloud cover to continue to erode into the 
afternoon leading to VFR for all but HAF which keeps CIGs through 
the TAF period. Expect moderate winds for the afternoon that reduce 
into the evening. CIGs return to the Monterey Bay into the evening, 
but an eddy over the bay itself will lead to moments of clearing. 
The rest of the region will see widespread CIGs return into the late 
night with some pockets of fog. Cloud cover begins to erode in the 
mid morning, but widespread VFR isn't expected until that afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through and moderate winds last into the early 
night. Winds reduce in the early night as IFR CIGS fill over the 
terminal and around the SF Bay. Cloud cover will be slower to erode 
into Friday but skies look to clear in the afternoon with moderate 
northwest winds arriving.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR and moderate winds last into the 
evening before winds weaken and low CIGs return. An eddy over the 
bay looks to pull cigs away from SNS into the night, but push them 
back over the terminal into early Friday. CIGs look to erode in the 
mid morning as moderate northwest winds rebuild.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1118 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

Rough seas are expected across the waters through the day and into
Saturday. Seas slowly begin to abate into Saturday afternoon.
Winds and seas stay light through much of the next work week,
before another storm system arrives into the next weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1118 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will persist through Saturday for all 
coastal beaches. Expect an increased risk of sneaker waves and 
rip currents as well as breaking waves up to 25 feet. Remain out 
of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, stay off of 
jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure, and never turn
your back on the ocean! The increased risk for sneaker waves and 
rip currents will linger Friday through early Saturday morning 
with westerly swell quickly rebuilding.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-
     508-529-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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