Current Predictions at Golden Gate Bridge, 0.8 mile east of

Starting on 2024-09-10 PDT

Current forecasts are generated by NOAA. These do not include effects of rainfall. Following heavy rains, you may expect stronger ebbs and delayed and reduced floods, particularly where the data provided are for greater depths.

• Currents from NOAA
• Sunrise/set by SunriseSunset.io

FXUS66 KMTR 102024
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
124 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

A gradual cool down today as temperatures cool aloft, before a deep 
upper level trough brings breezy winds by Wednesday and Thursday. 
Temperatures will continue to run near to below seasonal averages 
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 109 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

The ridge that brought above normal temperatures and near critical 
fire weather conditions will continue to flatten, allowing for 
temperatures to return to normal to 5-10 degrees below normal. 
Tomorrow will be much of the same temperature and cloud cover wise 
with a deep marine layer of 3,000 feet easily capable of filling in 
all but the highest of elevations overnight and dissipating by the 
afternoon.

Now for the main hazard: wind. Tomorrow will be very windy as a low 
pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska drops into the Pacific 
Northwest, tightening the pressure gradient between subtropical high 
pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. While below Wind Advisory 
criteria, widespread wind gusts of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 
50+ mph expected through gaps, passes, and other favorable spots, 
namely the Altamont Pass and Salinas Valley. 

Actions to take:

-Store or secure loose items such as patio furniture, sports 
equipment, trampolines, and trash cans.

-Use caution when driving, especially high-profile vehicles.

-Have a plan in case of a power outage.

While the overall fire threat is on a downward trend due to lower 
temperatures and higher relative humidities, fuels still remain 
critically dry with large fires possible. Therefore, any fire 
that starts will have no problem spreading and the strong winds 
will only make matters worse. As always, it is imperative to 
remain vigilant when it comes to exercising fire safety.

Actions to take:

-Properly discard cigarettes.

-Keep vehicles off of dry grass.

-Avoid activities with open flames or sparks.

-Avoid power equipment that creates sparks.

-Obey burn bans.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 109 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Winds will decrease Wednesday evening as the trough axis moves
inland and high pressure begins to rebuild. As the trough moves
continues East, there may be a brief period of offshore N or NE
winds in the North Bay Friday morning. While this possibility
remains, the latest model trends are backing off and beginning to
favor a more shallow feature that won't disrupt the standard NW
flow.

A small amplitude ridge will move trough on Friday, before a
second trough slowly approaches from stage left. The exact impacts
from this second trough are still uncertain with quite a bit of 
model divergence, particularly in the timing. There is a decent 
chance for a bit of rain, but that could be anytime from late 
Monday-Thursday and the details are too fuzzy to lay out in any
great detail at this time. What we do know is that this troughing
pattern will keep temperatures mild through the next 7-10 days at
least.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

An approaching trough is allowing the marine layer to expand to
nearly 3,000 ft. This deep marine layer is bringing aboudant MVFR
stratus to all sites this morning, with inland terminals 
improving over the next couple hours. Coastal sites will be 
dealing with the ceiling for most of the day, with a only brief 
period of clearing expected. While the models are showing IFR 
conditions tonight, I disagree as the deep marine layer should 
keep the bases in the MVFR category for most terminals and limit 
any significant visibility reduction. Stronger winds are expected 
Wednesday afternoon as the trough axis approaches.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings are starting to crack late this
morning, but any clearing will be short lived with an early return
expected late this afternoon. Onshore winds at SFO will be 
moderate this afternoon, with a strong breeze expected Wednesday
afternoon that may trigger an Airport Weather Warning for gusts
above 30 kts at the terminal.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Persistent MVFR stratus at MRY. I almost
one-lined the TAF, but decided to add a 6 hour period of scattered
clouds based on the latest satellite trends. SNS should fare a
little better, but MVFR CIGs are still likely to return before 
the sun sets. Otherwise moderate onshore wind will persist 
through the TAF period at both MRY and SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 922 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024

A series of troughs will keep the coastal waters sporting through
the forecast period. Northwest winds will begin to strengthen
late this morning as an upper level low pressure system approaches
from the north. By Wednesday, this system will bring widespread
moderate and gusty north to northwest winds and rough waves across
the coastal waters. A gale watch has been issued for  possible
gale force gusts across the Monterey Bay and inner  coastal waters
extending from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos  Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled conditions  are expected to
continue through the end of the week with a second upper level low
arriving by the late weekend into early next  week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening 
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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